Analyst Ben Solak says the Buccaneers could regret Baker Mayfield’s $55 million contract after a poor start, and predicts the Chargers will finish in the league’s bottom ten, likely earning a top‑10 draft pick.
Ben Solak, an ESPN NFL analyst, notes that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may come to regret the three‑year, $55 million‑per‑year extension they gave quarterback Baker Mayfield. Through the first two games of the 2026 season, Mayfield ranks 29th of 32 QBs in EPA per dropback and 27th in success rate, a drop from his 2024 performance when he was 13th in both categories. Solak points to Mayfield’s reduced scramble rate, a high sack rate (9.2%), and a heavily polarized pass‑attempt distribution—37.1% of throws behind the line of scrimmage and 16.1% beyond 20 yards—as signs that his effectiveness under pressure may be declining with age.
Solak also argues that the Los Angeles Chargers are a bottom‑10 team after starting 0‑2. He cites a struggling interior offensive line, injuries to tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and a low explosive rush rate (9.1%). Quarterback Justin Herbert faces high pressure (21.5% quick pressure rate) and limited receiving options beyond Ladd McConkey. The Chargers have committed 13 offensive penalties, fumbled seven times, and lost 42 percentage points of win probability through turnovers, placing them near the league’s worst in those categories. Given these issues and a difficult upcoming schedule, Solak predicts the Chargers will likely finish near the bottom of the league and secure a top‑10 pick in the 2027 draft.
Solak emphasizes that both assessments are based on a very small sample size—only two games of the season—so the outcomes remain uncertain and will depend on how the teams perform in the coming weeks.