Sport's xG analysis shows early Premier League over‑ and under‑performers, with Arsenal leading on xG difference despite a heavy loss, and promoted sides Hull and Ipswich starting strongly.
BBC Sport statistician Chris Collinson used expected goals (xG) data from the first five matches to compare how Premier League teams have performed relative to the league table. He cautions that the sample size is small and that early results should not be over‑interpreted.
The analysis finds Arsenal topping the league on xG difference, with Manchester City close behind, while Brentford’s unbeaten start is highlighted as impressive. Brighton registers the highest attacking xG and has been the most clinical, scoring 15 non‑penalty goals from a 10.7 xG tally. Newcastle have a low xG total but have over‑performed in goals scored, whereas teams such as Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have scored fewer goals than their xG would suggest.
Defensively, Arsenal is described as having the league’s best backline despite a recent heavy defeat. Brighton’s strong attack is noted as coming at the expense of defensive solidity. Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle are identified as the least impressive in overall performance, with the latter’s top‑half position seen as surprising. Promoted clubs Hull and Ipswich are mentioned as making solid starts that could make relegation battles competitive.
Collinson stresses that, with only five games played, any conclusions remain tentative and the underlying numbers provide only an early glimpse of the season’s possible trajectory.