Labour strategists are increasingly focused on whether Andy Burnham’s government can show voters that it is improving their lives despite a difficult economic backdrop. A word cloud shared after the party’s annual conference highlighted “trying” as one of the phrases voters most associated with the prime minister.
That message ran through a cabinet away day at Chequers on Monday and a special advisers’ meeting on Thursday. Government figures said voters wanted ministers to tackle problems rather than appear powerless in the face of global events, while advisers warned that a series of small measures could look inadequate without a broader programme of structural change.
The government faces a difficult budget after inflation and higher borrowing costs linked to the Iran war were thought to have created a £12bn gap in the public finances. The chancellor is considering tax rises and spending cuts, while the expected low-key statement is set to emphasize fiscal devolution, lower energy bills and additional help for small businesses.
Labour MPs and advisers are also concerned about how to reconcile new spending with tight finances. Downing Street expects attacks from the Conservatives and Reform UK over welfare, but ministers hope reviews by Milburn and Timms, due shortly after the budget, will strengthen their response.
At the cabinet meeting, Burnham argued for greater ambition and a longer-term plan. Ministers were shown polling in which support for the government’s social care policy, including an adjustment to the pensions triple lock, rose by a quarter after voters watched him explain it. Downing Street expects the immediate aftermath of the budget to be difficult, while some Labour figures question how long public patience with promises to keep trying will last.