September 2026 sees CPI at 3. 4%, a Fed rate hike and a S&P 500 Shiller CAPE above 41, prompting caution but the article says a crash is not inevitable.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a Consumer Price Index of 3.4% for August, with higher gasoline costs driving the increase. The article attributes the rise to President Donald Trump’s tariffs and a war with Iran, labeling it “Trumpflation.”
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate for the first time in three years. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the inflation readings remain too high and have not shown meaningful improvement.
The S&P 500’s Shiller CAPE ratio topped 41, the second‑highest level on record after the late‑1999/early‑2000 peak. FactSet data showed S&P 500 earnings grew 50.4% in Q2 2026, largely due to Alphabet and Amazon’s gains tied to their stakes in AI firm Anthropic. Charles Schwab’s historical analysis notes the S&P 500 has risen an average 10.5% in the 12 months following the start of a slow‑tightening cycle.
The article concludes that a crash is not inevitable, citing Warsh’s remarks that economic activity, consumer spending and employment remain solid. It advises investors to remain cautious given the “triple‑whammy” of inflation, rate hikes and elevated valuations, and notes that additional negative news could alter the outlook.