The 10-Year Treasury Is Above 5% for the First Time in Almost 20 Years. History Says This Is How the S&P 500 Index Will Perform Over the Next 12 Months

On the morning of Thursday, Oct. 15, the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 5. 06%. It has been making headlines ever since it crossed 5% about three weeks ago. This is viewed by experts as being the most important number in global finance. That's because it sets the risk-free rate of return that anchors pricing, mortgages, corporate borrowing costs, and valuations across the entire economy. Besides passing this threshold in late September, the 10-year Treasury yield last closed above 5% on July 19, 2007. Almost 20 years have passed since investors have seen it at this level. When rare events like this occur, it might be time to pay attention to what's going on.