Jeff Siegel says a market crash would make Rocket Lab a top pick due to record revenue, large backlog, government contracts and cash despite high valuation and execution risks.
If the stock market crashes, Jeff Siegel says he will be watching Rocket Lab as a potential buy, not because he expects it to hold up well, but because a crash could create a deep discount on a high‑growth stock. He notes that Rocket Lab is valued at roughly $43 billion, about 50 times trailing sales, indicating investors are paying a hefty premium for growth that has not yet materialized. The company reported a record $234 million in second‑quarter revenue, up 62 % year over year, and a backlog of $2.36 billion, up 137 %. It also secured more than $437 million in new launch contracts, a $266 million U.S. Space Force sub‑orbital launch contract and a $397 million contract to build and launch spacecraft for the Space Force’s SBAMTI program. As of June 30, it held roughly $2.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents plus $258 million in marketable securities. Siegel cautions that Rocket Lab remains unprofitable, that its larger reusable Neutron rocket carries significant execution risk, and that the high valuation could be vulnerable in a downturn. The article therefore frames the investment thesis as contingent on a market‑wide price correction that would lower the stock’s price. Uncertainty remains around execution risk for Neutron, ongoing profitability challenges and the impact of a high valuation premium on future performance.