The decline came even as the company reported stronger operating momentum, including a $176 billion backlog at the end of the second quarter and adjusted EBITDA growth of 62% from a year earlier. The share-price drop therefore shifted attention from demand to the price investors are paying for future growth.
Management had previously targeted approximately $200 billion by the end of 2028, but Chief Executive Scott Strazik said the company was on pace to reach that level in 2027.
Gas Power accounted for much of the order momentum. Gas equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements reached 116 gigawatts in the second quarter, up from 83 gigawatts at the end of 2025. About 80% of the contracted capacity serves traditional customers and 20% serves data centers, while first-half gas equipment orders were priced more than 20% above orders booked in the final quarter of 2025.
Profitability is the central test of the longer-term case. The company’s 2026 guidance calls for a 12% to 14% adjusted EBITDA margin, while its outlook including Prolec GE calls for $56 billion of revenue and a 20% margin by 2028. Management also plans to raise annual gas-turbine output from 24 gigawatts in 2028 to 30 gigawatts in 2030.
The $1,100 late-2030 share estimate is an analysis based on those targets, not a company forecast. It assumes adjusted EBITDA grows about 10% annually after 2028, the 20% margin holds, investors continue valuing the business at roughly 19 times adjusted EBITDA and buybacks reduce the share count by about 2% annually. Under those assumptions, a company worth approximately $263 billion in 2030 would produce a share price near $1,070, rounded to $1,100. From $825, that represents about 7% annual growth before a small dividend. The calculation also faces execution risks: the wind business is expected to record roughly $400 million of EBITDA losses in 2026, factories must expand output as planned, and the next quarterly report is scheduled to test whether the company reached a 20-gigawatt annualized gas-turbine production rate in the third quarter.