Singapore's HSFO crack surged above $10/bbl in October from a $5 discount in February, as disrupted Middle Eastern and Russian supplies collided with resilient bunker demand.
They disappeared in April and May following disruption to Hormuz shipping, briefly recovered to 130,000 b/d in July, then retreated to around 40,000–50,000 b/d in recent months.
Much of this demand is driven by Shandong’s independent refiners, which use suitable fuel oils (including but not limited to Russia’s M100 grade) as alternative feedstocks when crude import access is constrained.
The same easing appeared to have happened with HSFO – the M1-M2 spread narrowed from a peak of $59/t to $56/t.
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