Brent was trading near $104 a barrel in Asian markets when Chehab gave the assessment, while the firm projected that a potential U.S. -Iran deal could come by the end of the first quarter of 2027.
Chehab said negotiations could take several more months because economic pressure has not yet built sufficiently on either side. BMI therefore expects elevated oil prices to continue weighing on global inflation, inflation expectations and monetary policy, creating a difficult environment for policymakers.
He also linked the price pressure to U.S. Domestic politics, saying the economic strain on the United States had begun to tighten while the Trump administration sought lower fuel prices before the November 3 midterm elections. The forecast comes as supply concerns tied to the wider Middle East conflict keep a premium in crude markets.
A separate attempt to reduce energy-related pressure emerged Sunday when President Donald Trump announced what he called an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Trump said both sides had agreed to stop attacks on energy facilities, but did not provide terms, and Russia had not confirmed the arrangement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was awaiting details and would support the pause if Russia did so as well. He also said Russian forces continued attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure after the announcement, including a power and heating plant in Kharkiv. Oil prices fell more than 1% in early Monday trading after Trump’s announcement, but Brent remained above $100, showing that the proposed pause had not removed the broader supply risk.
The immediate market relief was limited because the U.S. -Iran standoff remains unresolved. Until a deal changes expectations for disrupted supply, BMI’s forecast keeps Brent above $100 through the coming months and places continued pressure on inflation and central-bank decisions.