Israel’s October 27 election is being fought against the backdrop of the Gaza war and the security failures surrounding the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attacks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has presented himself as the leader best able to protect Israel, warning on September 29 that the country’s enemies could attack before the vote and citing Israeli operations in Gaza. His opponents have focused on alleged failures before the attacks and delays in securing the release of captives.
The war has also pushed Israeli politics further right. Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right finance minister, has called for military action in the occupied West Bank on the model of operations in Gaza. Moshe Feiglin, an electoral ally, has called Gaza the enemy rather than Hamas and advocated annexing the territory after the election. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, has been convicted of inciting racism and supporting a terrorist organisation and is seeking greater influence, including the possibility of becoming defence minister.
Several parties in government and opposition support expelling Palestinians from Gaza, while analysts describe broad political agreement on continuing the attacks. The campaign has consequently made rejection of Palestinian statehood more acceptable in mainstream politics. The two-state solution has not featured prominently, and the number of Israeli settlers in the West Bank has risen from about 260,000 in 1993 to more than 700,000, complicating the prospect of a contiguous Palestinian state.
Netanyahu’s political position remains contested. Reports that he received warnings about a possible Hamas attack before October 7 have been cited by his two main rivals, while Netanyahu denies that he was forewarned. Those reports have not significantly changed polling, and he continues to benefit from a reputation among many Israelis as the strongest security figure in a field where voters see no clear alternative. Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief and Netanyahu’s main challenger, is also identified with a forceful military approach, including support for striking Hezbollah targets across Lebanon.
The public’s support for military and security measures exists alongside mounting fatigue. Israeli forces have been stretched across six fronts, and the Defence Ministry says nearly 30,000 soldiers and security personnel have entered rehabilitation since the war began. The rehabilitation budget has risen 88 percent over three years to 10 billion shekels, with most of the spending directed toward mental-health and post-traumatic-stress care. The result is an election centered less on ending the conflict than on which political leaders can promise greater security and territorial control.