The CFTC warned that "mention" prediction contracts carry heightened manipulation risk and issued guidance on listing criteria for such contracts.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory to its regulated entities stating that "mention markets"—event contracts based on whether an individual will say certain words, attend or appear at an event, or interact with another person—can be listed only in limited circumstances under the Commodity Exchange Act. The regulator said these contracts present a heightened risk of manipulation because settlement depends on a person’s discrete conduct that may not be independently generated or externally verifiable.
The warning follows recent enforcement actions, including a former White House teleprompter operator who was ordered to return $107,539 in profits and pay a $65,000 civil penalty for trading contracts tied to President Donald Trump’s speeches. CFTC Chair Mike Selig endorsed the guidance in a post on X, noting that regulatory clarity supports sound markets.
According to CNBC, the CFTC letter advised exchanges to evaluate four factors when listing mention markets: the presence of adequate oversight to detect manipulation, whether the settlement words or actions are independently verifiable, any external pressure that could influence the subject’s conduct, and any outside obligations the subject may have. The regulator had reportedly begun examining mention markets before the advisory, and earlier reports indicated that Kalshi had removed mention markets tied to sporting events pending review.
Separate reporting highlighted unusual trading activity on Kalshi’s Ether market, but the CFTC’s current warning specifically addresses the risks associated with mention contracts. Further details on potential future enforcement actions were not provided.