Albertans are deciding whether the province should remain in Canada or begin the legal process required for a future referendum on separation. Monday’s ballot does not decide independence itself, and results are expected after polls close at 8 p.
The vote has drawn unusually strong early participation. More than 1. 35 million Albertans, or 43% of eligible voters, cast advance or special ballots, exceeding the 810,000 early votes recorded in the 2023 provincial election.
Prime Minister Mark Carney spent two days campaigning for a decisive vote against beginning the separation process. At rallies in Calgary and Edmonton, he warned that the vote comes during a trade conflict with the United States and after President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened to make Canada the 51st state. Carney has argued that Alberta should not use the question merely to send Ottawa a message and has warned that a vote against Canada could produce prolonged division and uncertainty.
Premier Danielle Smith called the referendum but supports Alberta remaining in Canada. She has said support for starting the separation process is too high, while also acknowledging longstanding disputes over federal energy policy and provincial powers. Her government previously proposed negotiations with Ottawa, including stronger access to export routes and changes to federal resource rules, and said any citizen-initiated referendum must respect Indigenous constitutional and treaty rights.
The independence movement grew from a cause that once attracted only a small share of the vote. Former Premier Jason Kenney linked its expansion to pandemic-era activism and the 2022 Freedom Convoy, while separatist organizers say those events helped them build political networks. The movement has also sought leverage in negotiations with Ottawa, and some leaders have met U.S. State Department officials to discuss Alberta’s future.
Carney has sought support in the traditionally conservative province by backing a proposed Pacific pipeline and presenting energy diversification as a way to reduce dependence on the United States. Smith has said the province can remain stronger and more autonomous within a united Canada, but separatist leaders say the campaign has already made independence a major political issue regardless of Monday’s result.